Evaluating Product Ideas: A 5-Point Framework for Fast Decisions

Most idea evaluations take too long. Teams build complicated scoring models, discuss for weeks, and in the end someone decides based on gut feeling anyway.

This 5-point framework works differently: Five questions, 30 minutes, one decision. Not a replacement for deep analysis – but a filter that eliminates 80% of bad ideas before you invest serious time.

1. Pain-to-Payment Ratio: Will Someone Pay for This?

The most important question first: Is the problem big enough that someone will spend money on it?

Two dimensions:

• Pain intensity: How urgent is the problem?
• Willingness to pay: Who pays – and how much?

Example from healthcare:

A hospital IT team struggles with manual documentation. The pain is real – overtime, errors, frustration. But: The budget sits with procurement, not IT. High pain, complicated payment path.

Compare: A compliance solution for regulatory requirements. The pain is regulatory-mandated, the budget clearly allocated, the alternative (fines) expensive. High pain, clear willingness to pay.

Rule of thumb: Regulatory pressure often creates the clearest pain-to-payment ratio.

2. Founder-Fit: Can YOU Build This?

A good idea for someone else is not a good idea for you.

Three questions:

• Do you have the skills (or access to them)?
• Do you know the domain?
• Do you have access to the target audience?

Example:

A platform for insurance brokers sounds attractive. But: Do you know the industry? Do you have contacts with brokers? Do you understand the regulatory requirements?

If you come from the industry: High founder-fit. If not: You're competing against people who answer all three questions with yes.

Rule of thumb: The best ideas come from problems you've experienced yourself.

3. Durability: Will This Problem Exist in 5 Years?

Not every idea needs to survive a decade. But you should know what you're getting into.

Questions about durability:

• Is this a trend or a structural problem?
• What happens when big players enter?
• What regulatory changes might come?

Example:

A cookie consent management tool was a good idea in 2020. GDPR was new, the market fragmented. Today: Consolidated, large players dominant, margins under pressure.

Compare: A platform for medical device approval (MDR). Regulatory complexity is increasing, not decreasing. CE marking is getting harder. The problem is growing.

Rule of thumb: In regulated markets, complexity is often your moat.

4. Path to Validation: Can You Test It Quickly?

The best idea is worthless if you need 18 months to validate it.

Question: What's the shortest path to real customer feedback?

Hard to validate:

• Hardware requiring certification (CE, RoHS)
• Products that touch critical infrastructure
• Solutions requiring long procurement cycles

Easier to validate:

• Software layer on existing hardware
• Consulting/service as MVP before productization
• Solutions for problems with short decision cycles

Example:

New IoT sensors for building automation? Certification takes months. A software dashboard that visualizes existing sensor data? You can test it in weeks.

Rule of thumb: The longer the validation path, the higher your conviction needs to be.

5. Unfair Advantage: Why You?

The uncomfortable question: What can you do that others can't?

Types of unfair advantages:

• Domain expertise: You understand the industry better than outsiders
• Network: You have access to customers that others don't
• Technical capability: You can build something others can't
• Timing: You're in the right place at the right time

Example:

You've worked 10 years in the insurance industry, know the IT landscape, have contacts with decision-makers. That's an unfair advantage for InsurTech – not for a consumer app.

Rule of thumb: If you can't name an unfair advantage, someone else probably has one.

Application: 30-Minute Evaluation

For each idea:

Interpretation:

• 40+ points: Continue, deeper analysis is worth it
• 25-40 points: Identify critical weaknesses, consider pivot
• Under 25 points: Next idea

The framework doesn't replace discovery. But it prevents you from investing months in ideas that fail at question 1.